Mephistos

I hope that someone listened to me over the last week.  I watched with anticipation to see if Rachel Alexander was going to be entered into the Belmont and was a little surprised when over the weekend before Jackson said NO to her running, without even waiting to Monday as had been indicated.  That was a bit of a bummer, but even before that I had started telling folks that the fresh legs of a breed for distance horse in the Belmont might be the one to watch for versus either Rachel or Mine that Bird.  When I looked over the early possible field I really liked Summer Bird, a half brother to Mine that Bird and had put $5.00 wager on him to win in a bet pool that was before the field was even set and locked the odds on that win at 25:1.

As soon as Rachel was noted as out, I felt like the top three horses were likely going to be Summer Bird, Dunkirk, and Mine that Bird.  It was a toss-up among those three, and the likelihood of any horse beating them is as slim as getting a royal flush in poker. The first two in my opinion had the ability to go the distance and indicated before they were good.   I really felt the fresher legs, especially given the grueling races this year that had set the stage for the final leg of the triple crown, had the advantage.  I really liked Summer Bird over all.  Consider especially that he had almost the breeding as Mine that Bird and we had clearly seen he was an awesome horse.

I went with that feeling and on Thursday evening sometime I went ahead with regular wagers for Summer Bird to win and boxed an exacta with the three horses.  Just in case I was wrong, though I didn’t expect it pay much if I was, I did place a win bet on Mine that Bird as well.  I was very happy with the results, though I admit the network coverage from the television took forever to verify the results because of the slight, possible bump and cut over that Dunkirk made.  I actually missed them saying it was official and the results stood until sometime later.

So that makes two days at Churchill, where unusually, I have not done so great.  I have in both cases redeemed myself in a big stakes race at a different track the same day.  I got to thinking about it yesterday evening, with a lesser field of horses and a lot of lesser known jockeys and trainers, the expectations should be less on my part at the track itself.  Having hit both the win bet and exacta or trifecta on the Preakness and Belmont this year has made me very happy.   I have been so bad wrong on the Derby the last two years we will not even mention that one anymore.

Now the excitement is looking toward the Breeder’s Cup and even more, Horse of the Year.  As it stands right now, Rachel, Summer, and Mine all have good opportunities to do things with both of those accolades and currently the field is wide open between them.  Who could end up with things in the end is anybody’s guess.  Right now I think the edge for Horse of the year has to go to Rachel, but if Summer or Mine pulled away and did spectacular things between now and the Breeders Cup it could go either one of them too.

And lastly – Jody, my half brother – bet you are really wishing you had listened to me on this one, eh?  Two big ones out of three is making me think I should save a few extra dollars for when the Breeders Cup does come around.  Who wants my handicapping tip sheet that week?  How about next year for the Triple Crown?

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